James Henson is a pollster for The Texas Tribune and the director of the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin, where he also teaches government.
Amidst the historic national implications of the now all-but-certain impeachment proceedings against Donald Trump, a renewed focus on questions of corruption and abuse of power in the White House threatens Republican Texas incumbents’ near-monoply of the state’s political system.
The latest University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll of potential Democratic presidential primary election voters comes amid rising speculation from national political observers about Texas’s role in the 2020 election. We’ve chosen five first takes to explore based on the data.
Judgments about the actual policy achievements of the 86th necessarily await their implementation and evidence of sustainability. In the meantime, legislative incumbents will hope to bask in the faint praise they earned in 2019, while worrying that they might well be drowned out in another election year defined by the deafening volume of chaotic national politics.
President Trump’s announced plan to pressure the Mexican government to stop the flow of migrants from Central America by imposing a blanket tariff on goods imported into the U.S. risks economic disruption, and political headaches for GOP incumbents on the ballot in 2020.
Voters clearly telegraphed their distaste for increasing sales taxes in the February 2019 University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll. Those attitudes weren’t very surprising then, and it shouldn’t be surprising now that state legislators, whatever the mixture of carrots and sticks being deployed by their leadership, are not keen to follow.
The results of the latest University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll point to the potential hazards if elected officials get too far ahead of themselves in offering self-congratulations about finally “fixing” property taxes. This has happened before.
Following principle rather than politics would require crossing Texas GOP voters who are overwhelmingly and uncompromisingly supportive of the wall, comfortable with Trump’s reliance on executive power to deliver it and still intensely supportive of his presidency.
Set aside the hand-waving and vague muttering that “elections have consequences,” and the evidence for a public mandate on school finance and propert taxes is pretty thin. It likely has more to do with the new governing dynamic among Greg Abbott, Dan Patrick, and Dennis Bonnen.
Sen. Ted Cruz’s narrow win over Beto O’Rourke on Tuesday night ended the El Paso Democrat’s fairy-tale run. But Democrats’ disappointment in failing to “turn Texas blue” obscures another discernible election result: the beginning of the end for one-party rule in Texas.
Ted Cruz has led Beto O’Rourke in every recent poll by anywhere between 2 and 9 points, making it highly unlikely for O’Rourke to actually be leading on Election Day. But it’s also true that a more awakened electorate has made for a more interesting campaign. It has also magnified the uncertainty that everyone should expect to hover over all political polling.
Results from the latest University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll illuminate how public attitudes provide the context for the political and policy responses of Texas’ elected leaders to President Trump’s “zero tolerance” policy on immigration on the U.S.—Mexico border.
Amidst the discussion of how much the Texas midterm elections will be nationalized — in effect, a referendum on Donald Trump — the new University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll provides an opportunity to look closely at Trump’s place in the attitudinal landscape of Texans.
In the February 2018 poll released today, we rely on past vote history to determine whether or not we should consider someone to be a likely voter, and in particular, past primary voting history. For a respondent’s opinion to be considered in our primary trial ballot estimates, he or she had to have participated in a Texas party primary in 2012, 2014, or 2016.
Public pollsters sample an electorate based on the best available information and best judgments about how to approach that estimate of likely voters, take respondents at their word, report the results, and then hope that those results offer an accurate reflection of what’s going to happen. At the heart of this exercise is a great deal of uncertainty — a condition of all polling, but one that especially defines primary election polling.
Fantasies of widespread voter abandonment of Republicans for Democrats in the Texas suburbs remain far-fetched, but data from the last three University of Texas/Texas Tribune polls does show that suburban attitudes towards President Trump in Texas could become cause for Texas GOP concern if the party continues on its current trajectory.
The strongest evidence of Texas Republican voters’ embrace of the president who both defied their party’s leadership and defeated a handful of Texas-based candidates in the 2016 presidential primary is the sustained approval of the job he is doing as president, as shown in the latest University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll.
Because transgender people's access to public facilities is a comparatively new issue on the public agenda, most people are still forming opinions about it, which makes attention to the intentions and uses of different kinds of polling critical to assessing how polling is used for advocacy on this and other issues.
After more than a decade of fomenting suspicions about the voting process, Texas GOP leaders find themselves called upon to defend the overall integrity of a process that has delivered most of the political system to their party over the very same time period.
Polling data suggest the attitudes sustaining Trump's candidacy in Texas will continue to play a role in GOP politics in Texas regardless of the future of the candidate himself.
Comparatively higher levels of support among liberals for a constitutional convention might well reinforce conservative impulses to defend the status quo — the threat of liberal change could outweigh the promise of changes justified in the name of conservatism.
It is all but certain that the Legislature will resume efforts to pass “religious protection” measures next session. These efforts will pose challenges to Republican leaders attempting to keep the disparate elements that make up their party within the GOP tent — especially Gov. Greg Abbott.
The rise of mogul-turned-presidential candidate Donald Trump may contribute to the demise of GOP efforts to attract Latino voters to the party — or at least to avoid alienating them in large numbers.
Renewed fears of terrorist attacks and a fiercely competitive Republican presidential nominating contest have brought to the surface a set of nativist attitudes that have not received such full-throated expression in American politics for at least several decades.
Texas voters may not be currently clamoring for ever fewer restrictions on gun rights, but the political leadership is determined to deliver them anyway as proof of their commitment to defending their constituents’ rights from the depredations of the president.
Texas politicians have been in the front line of the War on Christmas in recent weeks, and one doesn't have to question the sincerity of their beliefs to notice that the political context of taking the side of the aggrieved in this war is also a form of preaching to the choir.
The attitudes revealed in polling provide ready frames for political leaders on the left and right to use in crafting their responses to the sad and troubling events in Colorado Springs.
Texas Democrats are beckoning Joe Biden to become the vice president of the Democratic primary contest. Once again, they don’t want him in charge, but they want to keep him handy in case of an emergency.
Voting is still months away, but a Donald Trump vs. Ted Cruz showdown in the Texas GOP primary next year is a distinct possibility. And based on polling, it’s easy to see why.
Despite the clear direction of history on gay rights in America, Texas' top Republicans know where their party's voters are right now, and polling shows why they intend to remain right there with them.
With a new slate of statewide leaders in charge, key questions about the tenor of Texas politics loomed large as the legislative session unfolded. New polling provides some preliminary answers.
Headlines and rhetoric out of the Texas Legislature this year suggest that the public is clamoring for tax relief. But the polling says otherwise.
Legislative sessions always include a big fight or two, but the mix of conflicts this year could make for an especially tense finale. Here's what to watch.
How Texas lawmakers will cut taxes has emerged as the defining fight of this year's legislative session, highlighting the tension between the state's political culture and its rapid economic growth.
Critics have called some Republicans' swift turn against local control an opportunistic reaction to the Denton fracking ban. But the pushback has a foundation in public opinion.
Gov. Greg Abbott may have prioritized early education this year, but his support for modest changes to the state's pre-kindergarten system reflects the complicated divisions within his party.
The aura of inevitability around open carry legislation in Texas this year belies the divide among Republicans on the issue.
Is the Wisconsin governor’s newfound popularity coming at the two Texans’ expense?
Think Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick’s commitments to the GOP’s activist base will hobble him in office? Think again.
Given the relative harmony between mainline and Tea Party Republicans in the Texas electorate, why can't their elected officials in the Legislature seem to get along?
Texas is already at the epicenter of the 2016 GOP presidential race — and not just because four Republicans with links to the state are on most early lists of top potential candidates.
The final tallies from last week were relatively predictable, but they still raise an important question: Was there something particular to Texas this year that gave Republicans here such huge wins?
The latest University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll, released last week, offers a few valuable clues about where the electorate stands going into the last week of the election.
Republicans appear poised to again sweep this year's statewide elections. But dig deeper into the data and you'll find faint signs of long-term promise for Texas Democrats, even if their standard-bearer loses in November.
Given the high-level discourse that pervades The Texas Tribune Festival, it may seem uncouth to scrutinize the event in the context of polling. But it's a useful way to analyze what was happening onstage.
Recent polls have painted two divergent pictures of the Greg Abbott-Wendy Davis race. Here's a rundown of what that means and what to pay attention to as November draws near.
Greg Abbott has always been more comfortable making this campaign about Wendy Davis than about the issues that Davis wants to discuss. The timing of Davis’ book release may have inadvertently helped him do just that.
Rick Perry’s governorship has transcended the spirit of the Texas Constitution. The indictment begs for a discussion of whether his version of the governorship is the one Texans want or need.
The loud and public back-and-forth among Texas Republicans this year has given them something Democrats are sorely lacking: an honest conversation about their party's future.
The problems facing the Republican Party on issues like gay marriage aren't unique to Texas, but they're particularly pronounced here. Polling data and the party's long run of success in Texas explain why.
Accusations of political corruption crop up in nearly every high-profile election, but polling reveals why these attacks often miss the spotlight and fail to change minds.
Whether you consider the border crisis a humanitarian problem or a policy failure, it's also a striking reminder that Texas is already playing an outsize role in the 2016 GOP presidential race.
Both Wendy Davis and Greg Abbott have been reluctant to make abortion a major campaign issue, but as polling shows, Abbott's hesitance likely benefits him more than Davis' benefits her.
In Texas, the surprisingly complex patterns of public opinion on immigration call into question the conventional wisdom informing media coverage — and even political strategy.
The new University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll leaves no doubt about which faction of Republicans is the driving force in Texas politics right now.
It's only June, but there's virtually no evidence yet that Texas Republicans should be concerned about November.
The drama that played out at last weekend's state Republican convention may have seemed trivial, but it illustrates a bigger shift underway in the Texas GOP.
The national media has painted state Sen. Dan Patrick's victory over Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst as a sign of Tea Party ascendance in Texas. But there's more to the story than that.
